SYDNEY, Mar 10 (IPS) – Talking on the latest annual convention of the Bangladesh Administrative Service Affiliation, Chief Adviser Dr Muhammad Yunus has emphasised the necessity to create alternatives for younger folks, asserting that Bangladesh’s massive inhabitants shouldn’t be a burden however a useful useful resource.
A day later, Deputy Commissioners (DCs) proposed the introduction of common army coaching for teens, aiming to contain them within the nation’s defence efforts.
In fact, this can be a political resolution, and it requires severe examinations of the proposed programme’s budgetary implications.
Now we have accomplished some preliminary finances estimates. The excellent news is that we are able to introduce the programme progressively over 5-8 years, say starting with 10% of these turning 18 years as a pilot after which regularly cowl the complete cohort of 18-20 years previous who’re in a position to serve.
The context – seismic demographic shift
In 50 years since independence, Bangladesh’s inhabitants greater than doubled from round 70 million (7 crore) to round 174 million (17 crore), turning Bangladesh as one of the vital densely populated international locations on the planet. Regardless of a speedy fall in fertility, Bangladesh’s inhabitants will proceed to develop largely because of the momentum impact. UN Inhabitants Division initiatives that Bangladesh’s complete inhabitants will attain its peak in 2071 with a inhabitants of 226 million.
Bangladesh is nicely into the third part of demographic transition, having shifted from a excessive mortality-high fertility regime to a low mortality-low fertility one. As proven within the inhabitants pyramid (Determine 1), there’s a youth bulge comprising about 28% of the inhabitants within the age bracket 15-29.
Determine 1: Bangladesh’s inhabitants by age (2024)
The UN initiatives that by 2030, the proportion of youth within the age bracket 15-29 years will decline to round 25% and by 2050 to round 20%. So, that is our demographic second that comes solely as soon as (see Determine 2).
As Professor Yunus burdened, younger inhabitants is a blessing – a supply of power, power and vigour. A rustic with a lot of younger folks not solely has a big pool of labor power, but additionally a big pool of potential future leaders – also known as “demographic dividend”.
Nonetheless, demographic dividend shouldn’t be prearranged. It is a chance supplied by the age structural transition. This window of alternative opens for a inhabitants solely as soon as. If missed, it could develop into a “demographic curse”.
A rustic can “develop into previous earlier than changing into developed” – as we see within the case of Sri Lanka- characterised by a big proportion of aged inhabitants (non-working age) whereas the nation nonetheless struggles with poverty and infrastructure points. Thus, the nation not solely has fewer working-age folks (i.e., a smaller work power), but additionally has to help a lot of folks of their older age. Such a demographic scenario probably hinders a rustic’s financial progress and creates challenges for its social welfare techniques.
Thus, a rise within the proportion of younger folks in a rustic’s inhabitants construction can carry an enormous dividend supplied this uncooked energy is transformed into extremely expert human assets, absorbed in productive employment and changed into entrepreneurs.
This may be proven by decomposing the neo-classical manufacturing operate as follows: Y/P = Y/SE x SE/E x E/LF x LF/WP x WP/P, the place Y = GDP, P = inhabitants, E = employment, SE = expert employment, LF = labour power, WP = working-age inhabitants.
Thus, GDP per capita (Y/P) is the product of:
- productiveness good points as a consequence of expert employment (Y/SE),
- proportion of expert employment (SE/E),
- employment fee (E/LF),
- labour power participation fee (LF/WP) and
- demography, i.e., proportion of working age inhabitants (WP/P).
Bangladesh’s demographic dividend could develop into a mirage. The latest scholar/youth unrest which started with a requirement for quota reform and finally toppled the Hasina regime is a transparent indication of the economic system’s incapacity to soak up these youthful folks in productive employment or flip them into entrepreneurs. The official unemployment determine of about 3-4% based mostly on outdated labour power survey methodology doesn’t mirror the truth.
Nationwide service – a possible pressing answer
Our most important problem is stopping demographic curse and reaping demographic dividend. Obligatory nationwide service, comprising some fundamental defence coaching, IT and common literacy-numeracy and vocational expertise, is not going to solely carry huge financial advantages, but additionally put together the nation for catastrophe administration, particularly as a consequence of local weather disaster. It should additionally act as an efficient deterrent in opposition to potential menace to our nationwide sovereignty.
At present, we’ve round 1.6 crore (15.9 million) youths within the age bracket 20-24 – roughly 87 lakh females and 73 lakh males. Of the youth turning 18 years, about 29 lakh are in a position to serve, excluding child-bearing females (round 25%) and people with varied disabilities.
If 10% of the youth turning 18 years are included within the programme within the first 12 months, and Tk 12,000 per thirty days (equal to the present minimal wage) is used for every participant, then 5.8% of the entire 2024-25 finances proposed by the fallen regime would been required for defence. That is marginally larger than 5.3% allotted within the proposed 2024-25 finances. This determine rises to five.9% and 6.2% if coaching every participant requires Tk15,000 and Tk20,000, respectively.
The above tough and prepared estimates assume no change within the exiting allocation for different defence bills. Nor does the train think about effectivity good points.
Clearly, budgeting can’t be accomplished in isolation. The primary place to seek out cash is reallocation as required by reprioritisation. It ought to be talked about right here that the fallen regime in its final finances proposed for 2024-25 in June 2024, elevated defence finances by 11% over the revised defence finances for 2023–24. Subsequently, this must be examined significantly; the priorities of the ‘new Bangladesh’ can’t be the identical because the fallen regime’s.
Cash can even come from the financial savings that may lead to different sectors, e.g., schooling as there can be diminished stress to increase post- secondary schooling. If obligatory, the prices of such programmes need to be shared via larger taxes for the sake of securing a affluent way forward for this nation.
Empowering the youth
Coaching and ability growth via necessary nationwide service is only one aspect within the provide facet of the equation. The pool of accessible expertise must be empowered and deployed to yield demographic dividend. In any other case, will probably be wasted and will even flip right into a disruptive power.
Our most important problem is stopping demographic curse. Not solely we’ve to reap demographic dividend, but additionally guarantee what’s referred to within the literature as ‘second demographic dividend’. Whereas the ‘first demographic dividend’ because of the rise within the proportion of working-age inhabitants is transitory, the ‘second demographic dividend’ will be perpetual.
For this to occur international locations have to put money into ability upgrading, help entrepreneurial initiatives and progressive/versatile work setting to permit working even in older age and asset accumulation by employees.
Particularly, given the development in expertise, and notably Synthetic Intelligence (AI), we urgently have to rethink ability growth for our youth. Many college levels could quickly develop into out of date as a result of the abilities they provide are liable to automation.
Mockingly, many blue-collar, hands-on jobs are prone to survive as a result of they require psychological and motor expertise people have developed over millennia and are actually troublesome to automate. We think about them low-skill as a result of we take these expertise without any consideration. Alternatively, jobs which require high-level essential considering will even survive. We want pressing actions to stop our youth from falling into the “center”.
Act now
Professor Yunus has rightly understood the important thing message of youth revolt that the youth ought to be positioned on the coronary heart of methods as they’re dedicated to creating a brand new world which is inclusive, honest and simply. Subsequently, it’s logical that his authorities initiates the measures when the aspirations of the revolution are nonetheless recent within the minds.
Anis Chowdhury, Emeritus Professor, Western Sydney College (Australia); held senior UN positions at Bangkok & New York in financial & social affairs
Khalid Saifullah, Statistician with years of expertise working in worldwide organisations
This opinion editorial was first revealed in New Age (24 Feb. 2025), Dhaka, Bangladesh
IPS UN Bureau
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